气候变化的生态影响及适应对策

气候变化的生态影响及适应对策 Ecological Impacts of Climate Change and Adaption Strategies 1 first-author 万辛如  中国科学院动物研究所助理研究员。主要研究领域: 全球变化生物学、种群生态学。E-mail: wanxinru@ioz.ac.cn WAN Xinru  Assistant Research Professor of Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). His major research directions are global change biology and population ecology. E-mail: wanxinru@ioz.ac.cn 万辛如   中国科学院动物研究所助理研究员。主要研究领域: 全球变化生物学、种群生态学。E-mail: wanxinru@ioz.ac.cn WAN Xinru   Assistant Research Professor of Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). His major research directions are global change biology and population ecology. E-mail: wanxinru@ioz.ac.cn wanxinru@ioz.ac.cn 1 1 2 1 3 corresp 张知彬ZHANG Zhibin 张知彬ZHANG Zhibin 张知彬  中国科学院动物研究所研究员。挪威科学院外籍院士, 欧洲科学院外籍院士。长期从事鼠类等有害生物种群生态学及其防控对策研究。E-mail: zhangzb@ioz.ac.cn ZHANG Zhibin  Ph.D., Research Professor of Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Foreign Member of Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters, and Foreign Member of Academy of Europe (Academia Europaea). His major research directions are population ecology and control of rodents and other pest species. E-mail: zhangzb@ioz.ac.cn 张知彬   中国科学院动物研究所研究员。挪威科学院外籍院士, 欧洲科学院外籍院士。长期从事鼠类等有害生物种群生态学及其防控对策研究。E-mail: zhangzb@ioz.ac.cn ZHANG Zhibin   Ph.D., Research Professor of Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Foreign Member of Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters, and Foreign Member of Academy of Europe (Academia Europaea). His major research directions are population ecology and control of rodents and other pest species. E-mail: zhangzb@ioz.ac.cn zhangzb@ioz.ac.cn 中国科学院动物研究所 农业虫害鼠害综合治理研究国家重点实验室 北京 100101 中国科学院动物研究所 农业虫害鼠害综合治理研究国家重点实验室 北京 100101 State Key Laboratory of Integrated Mangement of Pest Insects and Rodents, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China State Key Laboratory of Integrated Mangement of Pest Insects and Rodents, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China 中国科学院大学 北京 100049 中国科学院大学 北京 100049 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China 中国科学院生物互作卓越创新中心 北京 100049 中国科学院生物互作卓越创新中心 北京 100049 CAS Centre for Excellence in Biotic Interactions, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China CAS Centre for Excellence in Biotic Interactions, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China 2022年，联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）的第六次评估报告《气候变化2022：影响、适应和脆弱性》和中国气象局《中国气候变化蓝皮书（2022）》对外发布。文章简要介绍了其中有关气候变化的生态影响及适应对策的评估结果，并参考其他文献，介绍了有关中国的相关研究进展。第六次评估报告和相关研究表明，全球气候变暖及其引发的生态影响是十分显著的，主要包括：物候提前，植物生长季延长；物种分布区向极地移动或向高海拔地区移动、树线升高；物种局地灭绝或栖息地退缩；疫病发生频次或强度升高、范围扩大。这些生态影响在不同地区、不同类群间存在一定差异。全球要进一步采取必要的适应和减缓措施，应对不断加剧的气候变化对人类及其赖以生存的生态系统所带来的破坏与挑战。第六次评估报告和相关研究对我国如何应对气候变化也具有重要启示作用。为制定和提出科学合理的气候变化应对和缓解对策，我国急需进一步加强气候变化生态学及对策研究。 In 2022, The United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of Climate Change 2022:Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability and China Meteorological Administration issued China Climate Chang Blue Book (2022) . This paper presents a brief summary of the assessment report on the ecological impacts of climate change and adaption strategies, and related studies of China by reviewing additional literature. The AR6 report and related studies indicate that the ecological impacts of climate warming are significant, including advancement of phenology, extension of plant growing season; species range shift towards high latitude or elevation, tree line moving towards the top of the hill; local extinction of species or habitat loss; increase in frequency, severity and range of disease outbreaks. These ecological impacts of climate change may differ between species or regions. The AR6 report and related studies highlight the urgent need to take necessary measures of adaption and mitigation and to deal with the damages or challenges of climate change to the ecosystems which humans live on. These reports and studies also provide important enlightenment to China in dealing with climate change. We need to strengthen studies of climate change biology so as to take scientific and effective measures of adaptation and mitigation to climate change. 联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC) 第六次评估报告 中国气候变化蓝皮书 气候变化 生态影响 物种分布区迁移 生物多样性 生物灾害 the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) China Climate Chang Blue Book climate change ecological impacts species range shift biodiversity bio-disasters 气候变化总体态势 1 2022年2月28日，政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）发布了IPCC第六次评估报告第二卷《气候变化2022：影响、适应和脆弱性》的决策者摘要及报告全文（以下简称“第六次报告”） [ 1 1 ] 。第六次报告指出，近期全球极端天气及气候事件日益频繁，对生态系统影响深远。气候变暖导致全球海平面上升，部分地区强降水、热带气旋次数增加，极端高温、降水、干旱和森林火灾频发。极端气候事件频发对人类社会及生态系统的危害日益严重，人类社会及生态系统越来越难以适应日益剧烈的极端气候变化。 2022年8月3日，中国气象局发布了《中国气候变化蓝皮书（2022）》（以下简称“蓝皮书”）。蓝皮书显示，1951—2021年我国陆地表面年均气温增温速率达0.26℃/10年；极端低温事件减少，极端高温事件增加 [ 2 2 ] 。1961—2021年，我国年降水量逐渐增加，每10年增加5.5 mm，极端强降水事件增多；平均风速和日照时数逐渐下降，北方沙尘日数减少。2002—2021年，我国积雪覆盖率在西北、东北及中北部略有下降，在青藏高原略有增加。1980—2021年，我国沿海海平面变化急剧上升，上升速率为3.4 mm/年。 气候变化对全球的生态影响 1 物候提前、植物生长季延长 2 对全球4 000多个物种的评估发现，在区域性气候变化的驱动下，大约2/3物种的春季物候提前。在气候变暖情景下，温带区域的春季物候提前，亚洲东部和北部一些区域植物的生长季延长。但是，不同生物类群在物候上对气候变化的响应存在差异，相同类群在不同地区、不同时间段上也有差异。与20世纪90年代相比，当前春季物候提前的速度开始变慢，在一些地区停止甚至延后。在热带区域，降水变化对物候的影响比气温变化更大。针对北美52种迁徙鸟类的研究表明，受气候变化影响，这些鸟类普遍发生体长减少、翅长增加等形态变化，40年间春季迁徙物候提前。 生物多样性丧失风险增加 2 极端高温的加剧已致使数百个物种的局地丧失，加快了物种丧失速度，其中一部分丧失（如物种灭绝）无法挽回。全球变暖导致了区域性生物多样性丧失、生态系统退化。若全球升温1.5℃，海洋生态系统及其沿岸将面临中等至非常高的生物多样性丧失风险，生物多样性热点地区特有种的灭绝风险将翻倍；若升温3℃，大多数海洋及沿海生态系统都将面临非常高的多样性丧失风险。受气候变化影响，大量动植物种群局地灭绝，甚至导致部分物种灭绝。研究发现，在976种动植物中，有47% 的种群局地灭绝与气候变暖有关，而且在热带地区的局地灭绝高于温带、淡水高于海洋及陆地、动物高于植物。 物种分布区向极地或高海拔移动 2 对全球超过4 000个物种的研究表明，其中大约有一半的物种分布区向极地或更高海拔方向移动，不同生物类群的变化并不一致。森林昆虫对气候变化更加敏感，冬季变暖降低了害虫越冬死亡率，生长季延长利于其种群增长，由此导致森林害虫向两极地区扩张，加重了害虫在北美北部和欧亚大陆北部的危害及暴发程度。北美、欧洲和中亚地区的淡水鱼种群分布区向极地和更高海拔方向移动。在亚洲，预计约70% 被研究的物种受到气候变化的负面影响，约30% 的物种面临着较高的灭绝风险。 生态系统改变和退化 2 气候变化已经对一些陆地、淡水、沿海和海洋生态系统造成了巨大破坏和难以逆转的损失。气候变化导致部分温带森林树木死亡，而热带稀树草原和寒带苔原受树木侵蚀，这些变化影响了生态系统的结构、功能、恢复力及生态系统服务。受气候变化影响，生物群落的改变及演替更为普遍，高山森林-苔原交错带向高海拔移动，落叶和北方森林交错带向极地移动，亚北极苔原的木本植被增加，全球草地的面积显著减少。在温带和寒带区域，大约一半的树线正在向极地或者更高海拔移动，高山草甸减少。亚洲北部山地的树线在20世纪90年代以后逐渐向更高海拔移动；但是，喜马拉雅山脉区域的树线出现向更高或更低海拔移动，以及不移动的情况，这可能与当地复杂的环境因素有关。总体上，在未来变暖的情境下，山地地区的树线预计会进一步向更高海拔移动。 动物疫病频发和蔓延 2 气候变化加快了动物疫病的传播，部分媒介、宿主动物因气候变化而数量激增、蔓延扩散，导致疫病流行。蜱传疾病、蠕虫病和壶菌病向极地、高海拔地区扩散，已接近北极及尼泊尔的高纬度、高海拔地区，更多动物疫病呈现新发趋势。在全球较工业革命前变暖1.5℃的情景下，预计病媒传播疾病在非洲东部和南部的分布范围和季节性传播速度将增加。在亚洲，气候变化增加了热浪、洪水等灾害的频次，从而增加了病媒疾病的发生率。降水增多和温度升高将增加亚洲热带和亚热带地区腹泻病、登革热和疟疾的流行风险。在中南美洲，气候变暖增加了登革热、基孔肯雅热和寨卡病毒病等病媒疾病的传播。在北美洲，温度和降水的变化增加了病媒传播、水源性和食源性疾病的流行风险。在欧洲，莱姆病病原体携带者蜱虫的分布范围已随温度变化在部分国家扩大，预计将进一步向北扩展。在大洋洲，降水量和温度的变化与疾病的暴发和传播模式有关。 气候变化对我国的生态影响 1 植物生长季延长、植被覆盖度增加 2 蓝皮书指出，1963—2021年，我国典型地区代表性植物如北京玉兰、沈阳刺槐、合肥垂柳、桂林枫香树和西安色木槭的春季物候期每10年提前1.5— 3.5天，沈阳刺槐和合肥垂柳落叶期每10年推迟1.3天和4.7天 [ 2 2 ] 。总体上，全国春季物候每10年提前1— 6天，生长季结束日期推迟2—5天，植被生长季显著延长 [ 3 3 ] 。 过去几十年，我国植被覆盖度随气候变暖逐渐增加 [ 2 2 ] 。例如，广西石漠化区秋季植被指数逐渐增加，草地净初级生产力、叶面积指数、生长季都逐渐增加 [ 4 4 - 6 6 4-6 ] ；西北石羊河流域荒漠面积逐渐减小，但仍存在地区、物种间差异。在我国西北地区，除了针叶林和农区，2000—2015年，物候每年大约提前1天 [ 7 7 ] ；而华北、内蒙古林地物候在1982—2015年间提前6天 [ 8 8 ] 。在我国天山山区的12种植被类型中，2000—2016年只有2种的净初级生产力增加，1种下降，其他9种变化并不显著 [ 9 9 ] 。温度升高和降水增多延长了植物生长季，增强了植被光合作用能力，从而促进了植物生长和呼吸 [ 10 10 ] 。2001—2018年期间，我国的总初级生产力（GPP）以49.1—53.1 Tg C/年的速度快速增加；森林、灌丛、草原、农田2001—2010年间封存的碳达201.1 Tg，其中气候变化及植树造林的贡献各约一半 [ 11 11 , 12 12 ] 。据估计，到21世纪末，我国温湿型植被面积将增加，而干冷植被面积将减少 [ 13 13 ] 。 物种分布区改变、生物入侵风险升高 2 气候变暖已导致我国一些动物分布区发生变化。 气候变暖改变了东北驼鹿的食物可获得性和质量及其肠道微生物群落的结构和功能，导致了其南部分布区的退缩 [ 14 14 ] 。气候变暖使一些动植物分布区向更高纬度、更高海拔方向移动。云南白马雪山的落叶松（ Larix potaninii ）树线1923—2003年向高海拔移动了67 m。秦岭太白红杉（ Larix chinensis ）1919— 2018年向高海拔迁移了24.7 m [ 15 15 ] 。1992年以来布氏田鼠（ Lasiopodomys brandtii ）南部边界向北退缩了343 km [ 16 16 ] 。原主要分布于长江以南的黄胸鼠（ Rattus tanezumi ）扩散至华北、西北地区 [ 17 17 ] 。云南亚洲象种群过去几十年不断向北迁移 [ 18 18 ] 。主要分布在热带、亚热带地区的登革病毒宿主伊蚊已向我国北方大范围扩散 [ 19 19 ] 。冬季变暖使甜菜夜蛾（ Spodoptera exigua ）分布区北界北移；如果未来升温1℃—3℃，其分布区将继续向北移动200—500 km [ 20 20 ] 。预计到2100年，禾谷缢管蚜（ Rhopalosiphum padi ）、麦双尾蚜（ Diurphis noxia ）、异色瓢虫（ Harmonia axyridis ）分布区将向北移动437、217、620 km [ 21 21 ] 。 气候变化加重了我国遭受的外来物种入侵。 包括水葫芦（ Eichhornia crassipes ） [ 22 22 ] 、豚草（ Ambrosia artemisiifolia ） [ 23 23 ] 、水花生（ Alternanthera philoxeroides ） [ 24 24 ] 、加拿大一枝黄花（ Solidago canadensis ） [ 25 25 ] 、麻风树（ Jatropha curcas ）、蓖麻（ Ricinus communis ）、石栗（ Aleurites moluccana ）等木本油料植物及多种有毒植物 [ 26 26 ] ，以及美洲斑潜蝇（ Liriomyza sativae ） [ 27 27 ] 、须鳗鰕虎鱼（ Taenioides cirratus ） [ 28 28 ] 等陆生、水生动物。但也有研究表明，气候变暖也可能利于本地植物。例如，线叶黑三棱（ Sparganium angustifolium ）对抗外来种如水蕴草（ Egeria densa ）的入侵 [ 29 29 ] 。气候变化亦可抑制部分外来物种的入侵。例如，互花米草（ Spartina alterniflora ） [ 30 30 ] 、外来杂草 [ 31 31 ] 、牛膝菊（ Galinsoga parviflora ） [ 32 32 ] 、粗毛牛膝菊（ Galinsoga quadriradiata ） [ 33 33 ] 等植物的入侵受到气候变化的抑制。 生物灾害频发 2 受气候变化影响，近50年来我国西北地区农业干旱频次增加，强度及受灾面积增大，且作物病虫害增加 [ 34 34 ] 。极端气候频发可增加生物灾害发生的风险，但风险高低与物种类群、时空尺度有关 [ 35 35 ] 。受近期气候变化等因素影响，黄海铜藻（ Sargassum horneri ）繁殖加快 [ 36 36 ] ，黄海绿藻（ Ulva prolifera ）及金潮频繁暴发，对我国水产、旅游和生态保护造成巨大损失 [ 37 37 ] 。我国天幕毛虫（ Malacosoma neustria ）危害频率从过去的14—15年缩短到8—10年，油松毛虫（ Dendrolimus tabulaeformis ）已从辽西扩散到辽北 [ 38 38 ] 。预计玉米蚜虫（ Rhopalosiphum maidis ）将在我国胡焕庸线以东地区继续扩张，加重玉米虫害 [ 39 39 ] 。据估计，气候每增温1℃，我国虫害发生面积平均每次将增加9.6×10 7 hm 2 [ 40 40 ] 。气候变化也加重了一些动物疫病的流行。例如，温度升高和降水增加导致登革病毒宿主北扩 [ 19 19 ] ，增加了登革热的暴发频次与流行强度 [ 41 41 ] ；气候变化改变降水促进了西南地区流行性乙型脑炎流行；气候变暖也导致部分蜱虫分布区向北扩展，加重了蜱传疾病的流行 [ 41 41 ] 。 气候变化对生物种群的影响往往具有复杂的非单调效应，既可以是正的，也可以是负的，其正负效应往往与物种习性、地区环境、种群密度、时空尺度、时滞、作用路径等因素有关 [ 35 35 , 42 42 , 43 43 ] 。在内蒙古草原，温度对鼠类种群既具有直接正作用，又通过植被对其产生1年时滞的间接负作用 [ 44 44 ] ；达乌尔鼠兔和长爪沙鼠的种群增长率分别与降水量、温度呈拱形关系 [ 45 45 ] 。温度升高增加海南旱季疟疾发病人数，但又减少雨季疟疾发病人数 [ 46 46 ] 。温度变化对生物灾害（如蝗灾、疫病、鼠疫等）的发生既有直接作用，也有间接作用（如通过改变降水、栖息地等） [ 47 47 ] ，或有地区性差异 [ 48 48 ] 。 生物多样性减少 2 据模拟分析，在不同碳排放情境下，气候变暖将减少我国许多野生动植物，如大熊猫（ Ailuropoda melanoleuca ） [ 49 49 ] 、驼鹿（ Alces alces ） [ 50 50 ] 、黑麂（ Muntiacus crinifrons ） [ 51 51 ] 、四川仰鼻猴（ Rhinopithecus roxellana ） [ 52 52 ] 、冷杉属植物（ Abies Mill.） [ 53 53 ] 等的适宜分布区。气候变化和人类活动可导致我国亚洲象、犀牛分布区的退缩 [ 54 54 ] 或扩张 [ 18 18 ] ，或导致我国一些大中型兽类的局域灭绝 [ 55 55 ] 。在我国233种保护植物中，预计有16% 的物种将在2080年失去超过30%的分布区 [ 56 56 ] 。在我国南海，大约571个珊瑚物种受到了人类活动和气候变化的影响 [ 57 57 ] ；气候变暖引起的海洋变暖和酸化也影响海底软体动物，如双壳类动物 [ 58 58 ] 、腹足类动物 [ 59 59 ] 、海胆 [ 60 60 ] 等。据蓝皮书报告，过去30年我国海域的活造礁石珊瑚覆盖率呈下降趋势；2010年以来，我国南沙群岛、西沙群岛等珊瑚因气候变暖发生的热白化事件增多 [ 2 2 ] ；预计到21世纪末，我国南海珊瑚增长率将有所下降 [ 61 61 ] 。 对策与建议 1 总体看，全球气候变化所引发的生态影响是显著的，但这些影响在不同地区、不同类群上存在一定差异。总体上，气候变暖导致了物候提前、植物生长季延长；气候变暖导致了物种分布区向极地或高海拔移动，树线升高；气候变暖导致了许多物种的局地性灭绝或栖息地退缩；气候变化引发的极端天气加大了一些疫病的传播。因此，全球要进一步减少人类对气候和生态系统的干扰，加大对生态系统完整性、连通性的保护和修复力度，避免气候变化可能产生的灾难性后果。 第六次报告和蓝皮书及相关研究结果对我国应对气候变化也具有很重要的借鉴和参考意义。由于我国人类活动干扰强度大、生态系统比较脆弱、生态环境退化严重、栖息地过度碎片化、濒危物种和有害生物种类多，应对气候变化的难度很大。因此，我国有必要加大气候变化的生态影响与对策研究，主要提出4个方面的建议。 （1）摸清家底，评估物种变化态势，为应对气候变化提供科学依据和对策。 有必要进一步加强重要物种分布区变化的评估和预测，为制定和提出切实可行的气候变化适应或缓解对策提供科学依据。一方面，要加强顶层设计，建立系统完备的物种分布区变化和种群数量监测系统；另一方面，可系统挖掘文献数据，重建物种分布区变化模型。为评估物种变化态势，可根据物种分布点记录，借助物种分布模型等手段，模拟物种分布区的变化趋势 [ 62 62 ] 。也可以根据物种记录的时空数据，定量评估物种边界变化，区分气候变化和人类的独立和交互影响 [ 16 16 , 18 18 , 55 55 ] 。分析和评估结果可为重点物种保护、资源利用及灾害防控提供有针对性的科学依据。 （2）研究气候变化下不同区域生态系统的临界点（tipping point），即生态系统发生不可逆转的转变 [ 63 63 ] 。 要研究气候持续变暖下生态交错区相邻生态系统发生替代的外部条件与干扰因素，提出防止生态系统退化、加快生态系统修复的干预措施和对策。炎热干旱可能会加大一些地区退化生态系统的修复难度。因此，要严格控制人类的放牧、开垦等干扰活动，防止生态系统发生不可逆转的转变，进而崩溃或功能丧失。对于温度和降水增加的区域，气候变化将有利于加快退化生态系统的恢复。因此，要因地制宜，积极开展植树造林、栽灌、种草，提高植被覆盖度，增加生物多样性。 （3）研究和弄清气候变化驱动下具有重要生态、经济、保护价值物种的迁移路径，采取有针对性的保护对策，以提高其应对气候变化的生存力。 气候变化将导致物种在海拔和纬度方向上的迁移。温度持续升高，可导致北半球（南半球）低纬度物种分布区北界（南界）向中纬度扩张，中纬度地区物种分布区整体向高纬度迁移，高纬度地区物种分布区南界（北界）向极地退缩，极地地区物种消失。温度持续升高，可导致低海拔物种分布区上界向中海拔扩张，中海拔地区物种分布区整体向高海拔迁移，高海拔地区物种分布区下界向山顶退缩，山顶地区物种消失。而气候变冷对物种分布区的影响则刚好和气候变暖相反。人类活动导致的物种栖息地隔离将阻碍气候变化驱动下的物种迁移，导致其局地或整体灭绝。为解决这一物种迁移受阻问题，有必要结合动物潜在的迁移路径，根据山脉走向和保护区分布特点，沿海拔和纬度方向建设一批适应气候变化的物种气候生态廊道（即有利于物种在气候变化下迁移的生态廊道），增加栖息地连通性，恢复和提高物种在纬度、海拔方向上的迁移能力。为发挥高原、山脉和山地在气候变化下保存生物多样性缓冲作用，有必要增加高山和极地国家公园或自然保护区的数量。 （4）研究气候变化下有害生物暴发成灾和蔓延规律，提高应对生物灾害的预警和治理能力。 气候持续变暖将促进我国热带、亚热带地区的病虫害、动物疫病向高纬度、高海拔地区迁移，加大这些地区生物灾害发生的风险。持续变暖将增加我国部分地区的温湿度，因此喜温、喜湿的有害生物（如登革热、出血热等的宿主）的种群将扩张。虽然气温升高有利于有害生物的发育和越冬，但持续变暖可能突破物种生理耐受上限，抑制一些原优势有害生物种群增长，促进次生有害生物上升为主要有害生物 [ 64 64 ] 。近几十年来，我国西部干旱区总体温度和降水呈显著上升趋势 [ 65 65 ] ，一些草原或干旱地区的有害生物对温度和降水增加敏感，其种群暴发风险可能会加大。总体看，如果气候持续变暖，我国将面临新老有害生物交替、新生或次生有害生物危害加重的风险，以及部分农业病虫害和动物疫病北迁或西移的风险。因此，应做好农业病虫害、疫源动物和媒介的迁移监测与防控工作，防止重大生物灾害的暴发和蔓延。 综上所述，气候变化的生态学效应影响是十分显著的，同时也是十分复杂的。因此，要加强气候变化生态学研究，提出科学合理的气候变化适应与缓解对策，促进我国生物多样性保护、生物灾害防控和生物资源管理等各项事业的发展。 参考文献 IPCC . 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