方创琳,毛汉英,鲍超,马海涛,杨宇.“丝绸之路经济带”中亚能源合作开发对我国能源安全的保障风险及防控建议[J].中国科学院院刊,2018,33(6):554-562.

“丝绸之路经济带”中亚能源合作开发对我国能源安全的保障风险及防控建议

Risk and Prevention Suggestions of China's Energy Security in Energy Cooperation Development with Central Asia in Silk Road Economic Belt
作者
方创琳
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京 100101;中国科学院大学 资源与环境学院 北京 100049
FANG Chuanglin
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
毛汉英
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京 100101;中国科学院大学 资源与环境学院 北京 100049
MAO Hanying
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
鲍超
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京 100101;中国科学院大学 资源与环境学院 北京 100049
BAO Chao
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
马海涛
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京 100101;中国科学院大学 资源与环境学院 北京 100049
MA Haitao
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
杨宇
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 北京 100101;中国科学院大学 资源与环境学院 北京 100049
YANG Yu
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
中文关键词
         战略能源;保障程度;保障风险;防控对策;中亚地区
英文关键词
        strategic energy;security degree;security risk;prevention and control countermeasures;Central Asia
中文摘要
        中亚地区是“丝绸之路经济带”建设的战略枢纽地段、世界战略能源富集区和超级大国争夺及政治博弈的重点地区之一,也是我国战略能源优先保障的最近基地。中亚战略能源(石油、天然气和天然铀)开发利用表现为储量大、产量小、出口量大、自消量小的“两大两小”特点,这些能源的合作开发利用对中国的保障程度有大有小。研究表明,预计到2030年中国石油、天然气、天然铀的对外依存度将分别高达80%、55%和70%,而同期中亚地区石油、天然气和天然铀出口对中国的保障程度分别为7.9%、40.7%和65%左右。受中亚地区政治、经济、政策、法律、社会文化等因素综合影响,中国与中亚地区合作开发利用战略能源面临的法律、经济、社会、政治、基础设施风险不可低估。其中,法律风险属于高风险,经济风险属于较高风险,社会风险和政治风险属于一般风险。中国与中亚合作开发战略能源一定要时刻防范风险,从化解风险、增进合作、互利共赢的角度,明确政府角色,保证政策沟通,建立副总理级战略能源开发协调委员会;发挥地缘区位优势,设立中国-中亚能源自由贸易区;完善基础设施,实现互联互通,加强中亚能源开发战略运输通道建设;建立能源战略储备制度,建立国家战略能源联合储备体系;加强人文合作,促进民心相通,降低战略能源合作风险。
英文摘要
        The Central Asia is the strategic hubs for the construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt, the enrichment zone for strategic energy resources, and one of the key areas for superpower competition and political game. It is also the nearest base for China's strategic energy priority protection. The development and utilization of strategic energy resources (oil, natural gas, and uranium) in Central Asia are characterized by "two large and two small" features, which means large reserves, small volumes, large volume of exports, and small volume of self-consumption. The security degree of the cooperative development and utilization of these energy resources for China varies greatly. Research shows that China's external dependence of oil, natural gas, and uranium deposits are estimated to reach 80%, 55%, and 70% in 2030, respectively, which the exports of the Central Asia's oil, natural gas, and uranium deposits to China are 7.9%, 40.7%, and about 65% in the same period, respectively. Due to the combined influence of politics, economy, policies, laws, and socio-culture in Central Asia, the legal, economic, social, political, and infrastructural risks facing China's and Central Asia's cooperation in the development and utilization of strategic energy resources cannot be underestimated. Among them, the legal risk belongs to the highest risk, the economic risk belongs to the higher risk, while the social risk and the political risk belong to the general risk. China's cooperation with Central Asia to develop strategic energy resources must always guard against risks. Firstly, from the perspective of defusing risks, enhancing cooperation, and achieving mutual benefits, the role of the government needs to be clearly defined and policy communication needs to be guaranteed, while a strategic energy development coordinating committee at the Deputy Prime Minister level is also necessary to be established. Secondly, promote the establishment of China-Central Asia Energy Free Trade Zone and take the advantage of geographical location. Thirdly, strengthen the construction of a strategic transport corridor for energy development between China and Central Asia through the improvement of infrastructure. Fourthly, establish a strategic reserve system for energy resources, and establish a national strategic energy joint reserve system. Last but not least, strengthen humanistic cooperation and promote the people connected to reduce the risk of strategic energy resources cooperation.
DOI10.16418/j.issn.1000-3045.2018.06.003
作者简介
方创琳 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所二级研究员,"长江学者"特聘教授,国际欧亚科学院院士,国家"万人计划"科技创新领军人才,博士生导师。中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室副主任,地理资源所区域与城市规划设计研究中心主任、中国城市群与京津冀协同发展研究中心主任。主要从事城市地理、城市化与城市规划等方面的研究与教学工作,主持完成国家自然科学基金重大项目、国家社科基金重大项目等项目约100余项。提交50份被中共中央办公厅和国务院办公厅采用的重要咨询报告或重大规划,其中24份先后得到了中共中央总书记以及国务院总理、副总理等党和国家领导人的亲笔批示并落实。主编出版中英文著作25部,发表学术论文约330篇。
E-mail:fangcl@igsnrr.ac.cn
FANG Chuanglin Researcher at Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR),Cheung Kong Scholar Chair Professor,academician of International Academy of Sciences for Europe and Asia (IASEA),Ph.D.supervisor,deputy director of Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling of Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS),executive director of the Research Centre for Regional and Urban Planning and Design (RUPD).He is a geographer and his major areas of research are urban geography,urbanization,and urban development.He has participated in almost 100 key research programs funded by National Natural Science Fund,National Social Science Fund,etc.50 copies of important consulting report or major planning submitted to the State Council have been adopted by the Central Committee General Office and the State Council General Office,24 of that have been instructed by general secretary of the CPC Central Committee,Premier,Vice Premier,and other party and state leaders,2 of them becomes the State Council document.He is the Editor-in-Chief with 25 works,and more than 330 academic papers have been published.
E-mail:fangcl@igsnrr.ac.cn
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