骆晓强,梁权琦,杨晓光.当前中国经济的“灰犀牛”和“黑天鹅”[J].中国科学院院刊,2017,(12):1356-1370.

当前中国经济的“灰犀牛”和“黑天鹅”

“Gray Rhino” and “Black Swan” for Current China's Economy
作者
骆晓强
中国科学院大学 经济管理学院 北京 100190
Luo Xiaoqiang
School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
梁权琦
中国科学院大学 经济管理学院 北京 100190;中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 北京 100190
Liang Quanqi
School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
杨晓光
中国科学院大学 经济管理学院 北京 100190;中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 北京 100190
Yang Xiaoguang
School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
中文关键词
         “灰犀牛”;“黑天鹅”;债务;杠杆率;外部冲击
英文关键词
        “Gray Rhino”;“Black Swan”;debt;lever rate;external impact
中文摘要
        在经历了长期高速增长以及国际经济形势转变以后,中国经济面临着较为严重的系统性风险。中国政府对此予以高度重视,提出既防"黑天鹅",也防"灰犀牛"。文章对中国经济面临的"灰犀牛"和"黑天鹅"进行了分析,认为当前最大的"灰犀牛"是不断膨胀的整体债务和高企的杠杆率,当前的"黑天鹅"是难以预测的外部猛烈冲击。导致"灰犀牛"奔跑的两大潜在因素是经济下滑和利率攀升,而"黑天鹅"通过贸易渠道引爆"灰犀牛"是当前的最大风险。
英文摘要
        After a long period of high-speed growth and the changing of international economic condition, China is facing a severe systemic risk. China's government pays a great attention to the risk, and is engaging to prevent both "Gray Rhino" and "Black Swan". This paper tries to analyze the "Gray Rhino" and "Black Swan" for China's economy. The analysis suggests that the largest "Gray Rhino" is the fast expanding debt and the high level of lever rates, and "Black Swan" comes from the unpredicted large external impact. There are two potential factors make the "Gray Rhino" run, namely, economic slowdown and interest rate hike. The biggest possible risk is that the breakout of "Gray Rhino" is induced by the "Black Swan" via the trade channel.
DOI10.16418/j.issn.1000-3045.2017.12.010
作者简介
骆晓强 中国科学院大学经济管理学院博士生,研究领域包括经济预测、财政政策、货币政策、金融风险等。E-mail:luoxiaoqiang17@mails.ucas.edu.cn
Luo Xiaoqiang Ph.D.student in School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (UCAS).His research interests include economic forecasting,fiscal policy,monetary policy,financial risk,and so on.E-mail:luoxiaoqiang17@mails.ucas.edu.cn
杨晓光 中科院数学与系统科学院系统科学所副所长、研究员,中科院管理决策与信息系统重点实验室主任。研究领域包括管理科学与工程、应用经济学。E-mail:xgyang@iss.ac.cn
Yang Xiaoguang Professor in Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS);Deputy Director of Institute of Systems Science,CAS;Director of Key Laboratory of Management,Decision and Information Systems,CAS.His research interests include management science and engineering,applied economics.E-mail:xgyang@iss.ac.cn
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