崔鹏,贾洋,苏凤环,葛永刚,陈晓清,邹强.青藏高原自然灾害发育现状与未来关注的科学问题[J].中国科学院院刊,2017,(9):985-992.

青藏高原自然灾害发育现状与未来关注的科学问题

Natural Hazards in Tibetan Plateau and Key Issue for Feature Research
作者
崔鹏
中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室/中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 成都 610041;中国科学院青藏高原地球科学卓越创新中心 北京 100101
Cui Peng
Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Processes, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China;Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
贾洋
中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室/中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 成都 610041;中国科学院大学 北京 100049
Jia Yang
Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Processes, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
苏凤环
中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室/中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 成都 610041
Su Fenghuan
Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Processes, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China
葛永刚
中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室/中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 成都 610041
Ge Yonggang
Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Processes, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China
陈晓清
中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室/中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 成都 610041;中国科学院青藏高原地球科学卓越创新中心 北京 100101
Chen Xiaoqing
Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Processes, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China;Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
邹强
中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室/中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 成都 610041
Zou Qiang
Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Processes, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China
中文关键词
         青藏高原;自然灾害;灾害风险;气候变化;构造运动
英文关键词
        Tibetan Plateau;natural hazards;disaster risk;climate change;tectonic activities
中文摘要
        青藏高原构造隆升强烈、地形地貌复杂、气候敏感多变,是地震、泥石流、崩塌、滑坡、冰湖溃决、山洪、雪灾、干旱和冻胀融沉等灾害的多发区。受区域地质构造、地形条件、水文气象和人类活动影响,青藏高原自然灾害的分布呈现为沿断裂构造带密集分布、沿深切的高山峡谷区成带状分布、地带性分布、在高强度人类活动区集中分布的特征。灾害活动呈现高强度与高频率、突发性、季节性、准周期性、群发性和链生性的特点。在气候变暖与地壳运动活跃的环境背景下,青藏高原自然灾害的危险性逐渐加剧,灾害风险也会随着人口数量和社会经济水平提升不断增加。进而分析了当前青藏高原自然灾害成灾机理、灾害防治以及风险管理等方面所面临的问题,并在此基础上提出成灾因素变化与灾害发育的区域规律、自然灾害动力学过程与灾变机理、气候变化与地震耦合作用下的巨灾演化规律、青藏高原自然灾害风险评估与风险管理、适宜高寒区特点的监测预警和防治关键技术等未来应该关注的科学技术问题以及需要开展的相应工作。
英文摘要
        The Tibetan Plateau, with the features of strong tectonic activities, complex geomorphology, and changing climate, is being highly prone to the occurrence of natural hazards, such as earthquakes, debris flows, glacial lake outburst, torrential floods, landslides, avalanches, snowstorm, and drought. Affected by regional tectonic activities, topography, climatic conditions, and human activities, these hazards are mainly distributed along the fault zones, the deep-incised valleys, and the regions highly disturbed by engineering construction. Moreover, the occurrence of different hazards shows up the characteristics of high frequency, outbreak, seasonality, quasi-periodicity, agminate appearance, and hazard chain. In addition, frequency and scale of mountain hazards are supposed to get higher for the climate warming and active crustal movement, which increases the risk of disasters. Meanwhile, the increasing density of population and economy will make the situation of vulnerability and risk worse. The current deficiency of the theoretical comprehension, forecasting and prevention technology, protection strategy, and risk management for natural hazards in the Tibetan Plateau has been analyzed and sorted. Furthermore, we propose the topics that are worthy of more attention in the future research, including the change of formative factors and the regional law of hazard formation, dynamic process and mechanism of hazards, evolution of catastrophe caused by the coupling of climate change and earthquake, risk assessment and risk management, monitoring and prevention technology concerning the alpine environment in Tibetan Plateau.
DOI10.16418/j.issn.1000-3045.2017.09.008
作者简介
崔鹏, 中科院院士,研究员。现任中国地理学会副理事长、中国水土保持学会副理事长、国际灾害风险综合研究计划 (IRDR)科学委员会委员与中国委员会副主任、Journal of Mountain Science主编。主要从事泥石流、滑坡等山地灾害与水土保持等方面的研究。E-mail:pengcui@imde.ac.cn
Cui Peng, Professor, Academician of Chinese Academy of Sciences. He serves as Vice President of Geographical Society of China, Vice President of Chinese Society of Water and Soil Conservation, Science Committee member of Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR) and Vice Director of IRDR-China, Editor-in-Chief for Journal of Mountain Science. His research focuses on geo-hazards (debris flow and landslide), erosion and sediment yield, and fluvial geomorphology. E-mail:pengcui@imde.ac.cn
微信关注公众号