2017年夏季全国气候趋势展望

Seasonal Climate Outlook for the Summer of China 2017
作者
        彭京备 布和朝鲁 郑 飞 陈 红 郎咸梅 俞 越 张庆云 马洁华 林壬萍 李超凡 田宝强 穆松宁 林朝晖 陆日宇 朱 江
中文关键词
         夏季降水形势,气候预测,登陆台风
英文关键词
        Summer precipitation anomalies, climate prediction, landing typhoon
中文摘要
        2017 年春季至夏初,赤道中东太平洋海温将处于中性状态。 2017 年夏季(6—8 月),全国总体降水形势趋于常年,出现大范围洪涝灾害的可能性不大。预计,华南大 部、黄淮流域、华北东部、东北南部、东北北部、新疆大部和西藏南部地区降水正常略偏 多,其中新疆北部降水偏多 2 成左右。我国其他大部分地区降水正常略偏少。预计今年登陆 台风数接近正常。
英文摘要
        The equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the central and east-central Pacific are in aneutral stateat present and would keepthis state through the coming spring and early summer of 2017, according to the real-time prediction result of the ENSO prediction system of Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP, CAS). According to the seasonal rainfall prediction at IAP, in summer (June to August) of 2017, the overall rainfall situation in China tends to perennial, there is little possibility of a large extent of flooding. A wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for most parts of south China, Huang-huai basin, eastern part of North China, southern and northern parts of Northeast China, most parts of Xinjiang, and southern part of Tibetan Plateau, whereas the other parts of China will experience a drier-than-normal condition during the boreal summer. In thissummer, the number of landing typhoons is predicted to be near normal.
作者简介
彭京备
中科院大气物理所国际气候与环境科学中心高级工程师,主要研究方向为短期气候预测和灾害性天气气候机 理诊断研究。
E-mail: pengjingbei@mail.iap.ac.cn
Peng Jingbei
Received B.S. degree from Beijing meteorological institute, Beijing, China,and M.S. and Ph.D. degrees from Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAPCAS), Beijing, China, in 2009, respectively. Her current research interests include short-term climate prediction and diagnosis study of the mechanism of disastrous weather. Since 2012, she has been a senior engineer with the International Center for Climate and Environment Science (ICCES), IAPCAS, Beijing, China.
E-mail: pengjingbei@mail.iap.ac.cn

布和朝鲁
男,中科院大气物理所国际气候与环境科学中心副主任,研究员。主要从事中高纬度大气动力学和气候变 化研究。
E-mail: bueh@lasg.iap.ac.cn
Bueh Cholaw
Male, received B.S. degree from Beijing University in 1990, M.S. degree from Nanjing University in 1993, and Ph.D. degree from IAP/CAS in 1997, respectively. His current research interests include the mid- and high-latitude atmospheric dynamics and climate change. Since 2006, he has been a full professor with IAP/CAS. He is currently the deputy director of ICCES, IAP/CAS.
E-mail: bueh@lasg.iap.ac.cn
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